STAUNTON — Spring is still about a month away, but temperatures this week are warming up, giving us a false sense of security. Is this first spring? Will we get a second winter blast?
Overall, how accurate was the Farmer's Almanac this winter?
According to the Farmer's Almanac, winter temperatures and precipitation were predicted to be below normal, with above-normal snowfall in the north and below normal in the south — or our area.
The snowiest periods were predicted to bein mid-to-late December to early-to-mid January, the almanac said. Also, potentially in mid-March.
How did we fare?
Well, we can't speak for March yet, buta very mild and snowless December gave way to a chilly snow-filled January, according to the National Weather Service.
Average high in November was 55.7 degrees, with an average low of 34.2, which is slightly below normal, according to the NWS. December saw the same average high, which was nearly 10 degrees higher than normal,with an average low of 35.4 degrees, which is seven degrees higher than normal.
The average high in January was 41.2 degrees, with an average low of 19.8 degrees, which was nearly 5 degrees colder than normal. January saw more than 20 inches of snow, which is 14 inches above average— January usually sees just over five inches of snow.
January had some single-digit temperature days as well as the low teens — one low was recorded at zero degrees, according to AccuWeather, another at six degrees.
As forspring, April and May will be warmer than normal, with rainfall near normal in the north and below normal in the south, the Almanac said. Summer will be hotter and slightly drier than normal, with the hottest periods in mid-June and early to mid-July, from late July into early August and in late Augusta, the Almanac said.
March should have an average temperature of 49 degrees, with rainy periods at the beginning and end of the monthand possible snowy periods in mid-March.
April, according to the Almanac, should have an average temperature of 57 with showers at the beginning and end of the month. May should see an average of 64 degrees with similar shower predictions as April.
One reason we are seeing a shift in the seasons is due to global warming. According to the Land Trust Alliance, the seasons shifting is linked to warmer global temperatures.
"A slight change in temperature is enough to push the spring thaw earlier, and delay the first frost until later in the fall," thewebsite said. "These environmental changes cause many trees and spring wildflowers to bloom earlier than typical. As a result, winters are shorter, spring is earlier, summers are longer and fall arrives later."
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Farmer's Almanac predictions and how it works
According to the 2021-2022 Old Farmer's Almanac, the United States will have a colder-than-normal winter. The publication is also calling for greater snowfall than normal in the northern and central Atlantic corridor from Buffalo to Georgia and into the Ohio Valley and the Deep South heading to the Midwest.
According to the almanac, we should be preparing for a "Season of Shivers." In some places that means lots of snow.
"This winter will be punctuated by positively bone-chilling, below-average temperatures across most of the U.S.," the almanac said.
The extreme wintry mix is expected in areas of New England as well as throughout the Ohio Valley, in northern portions of the Deep South, and in southeast NewMexico, the almanac said. The Mid-Atlantic is expected to have a cold, dry winter, the almanac said.
“This coming winter could well be one of the longest and coldest that we’ve seen in years,” said Janice Stillman, editor ofThe Old Farmer’s Almanac.
For 230 years, the Almanac has been helping readers to prepare for winter’s worst with its 80 percent–accurate weatherforecasts.The Farmer's Almanac uses a formula created in 1972 by the almanac's founder Robert B. Thomas — at that point it was influenced by sunspots, the almanac said.
Now, they utilize technology and scientific calculations, including solar science (studying sunspots and other solar activity), climatology (studying prevailing weather patterns) and meteorology (studying the atmosphere).
Forecasts come from temperature and precipitation averages or normals and are based on a 30-year statistical average that are prepared by government meteorological agencies and updated each decade, the almanac said.
Last year's prediction for change in temperature fromthe previous winter was 72% accurate and the change in precipitation was 77.8% accurate, they claim.
Laura Peters is the trending topics reporter at The News Leader. Have a news tip on local trends or businesses?Or a good feature? You can reach reporter Laura Peters (she/her) atlpeters@newsleader.com.Follow her@peterslaura. Subscribe to The News Leader at newsleader.com.
